![]() ![]() 1.1. Electricity demand in rural communitiesĭemand estimation of electricity is an important driver for the design and sizing of off-grid systems. Additionally, we analyse the implications of varying model parameters on the system size and cost. We use a new modelling tool which is able to account for demand growth by including future capacity expansion. To this end, this study investigates the initial electricity demand of two rural communities in India and models mini-grid sizing to meet their current and projected (by 2030) electricity needs in a cost-optimal manner. Additionally, the financial, technical, and operational sustainability of mini-grids remain to be demonstrated (Stritzke and Jain 2021, Bandi et al 2022). There is a lack of mini-grid sizing tools considering demand evolution over time (Stevanato et al 2020). Moreover, most studies consider static mini-grid designs which do not account for capacity expansion in the future (Allee et al 2021). Thus, it is challenging to forecast the current and future demand of unelectrified communities, which in turn affects mini-grid design and financial feasibility (Louie and Dauenhauer 2016, Blodgett et al 2017). Notably, realistic electricity demand assumptions are uncertain (Ortega-Arriaga et al 2021) and there is a lack of measured data on the utilisation of mini-grids and how this changes and grows over time (Blodgett et al 2017, Prevedello and Werth 2021). In this context, strategic planning of rural electrification via mini-grids is essential in achieving electricity access, especially in remote rural locations.ĭespite the promising potential of renewable mini-grids, several gaps remain in the literature on how to correctly size these systems throughout their lifetime to serve communities currently lacking energy access. One of the main pillars of GEAPP to achieve its commitment is through the scaling up of renewable mini-grids (Alliance 2022). The Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP) was launched at the most recent United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26), with the purpose of providing reliable renewable electricity to 1 billion people and avoiding 4 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. These systems are a relatively sustainable alternative with a lower carbon footprint compared to fossil-fuel powered systems. Decentralised electrification will play an important role in providing electricity access to underserved communities where the grid cannot be extended given their remoteness (Cozzi et al 2020, IEA et al 2021) and off-grid systems options, such as mini-grids powered by renewable sources, are expected to provide and enhance access to the current un-electrified population (Cozzi et al 2020, IEA et al 2021). ![]() About 733 million people currently lack electricity access worldwide, most of whom are located in rural locations (Akbas et al 2022, IEA et al 2022). Our study shows that demand growth scenarios and choice of mini-grid sizing approaches have important financial and operational implications for the design of systems for rural electrification.Īccess to clean and affordable energy is at the intersection of sustainable development, social welfare, and environmental stewardship. Of these, we find that system costs are most sensitive to variations in demand growth rates and cost decreases in solar PV and batteries. ![]() We perform a sensitivity analysis of the cost of the two sizing approaches by varying six key parameters: demand growth rate, logistics cost, system re-sizing frequency, likelihood of blackouts, solar PV and battery cost, and degradation rate. We show a cost-saving potential of up to 12% when mini-grids are sized using a multi-stage approach where mini-grids gradually expand in several stages, rather than a single-stage optimisation approach. Using a case study of two rural communities in India, we assess the implications of demand growth on financial costs and performance of a mini-grid system consisting of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and battery storage using two different system sizing approaches. However, estimation of demand for communities awaiting electricity access is uncertain and growth in demand along with the associated cost implications is rarely considered during estimation of mini-grid sizing. Mini-grids are a critical way to meet electricity access goals according to current and projected electricity demand of communities and so appropriately sizing them is essential to ensure their financial viability. ![]()
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